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Initially, Trump appeared to embrace a strong stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After making threats of "severe ramifications" during the summer in case Russia's president carried on hindering peace discussions, Trump ultimately introduced substantial restrictions on the Russian two largest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action significantly hindered the Russian leader's capacity to fund his military invasion in Ukraine.

However, through his newly presented detailed peace initiative for Ukraine, that was created by American and Russian officials without Ukraine's or EU input, he has seemingly returned to his favorable to Russia stance.

Benefiting Military Action

This proposal would effectively benefit Putin for invading Ukraine while leaving the country's democracy in peril. Despite bold statements that "Ukraine's autonomy will be affirmed", much of the plan in reality compromise that very independence. What represents a Kremlin dream would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his corporate background, the former president continues to view the situation in Ukraine as a mere land disagreement, as if handing Russia a section of Ukrainian land will appease the president. However, Putin's military campaign is not simply about controlling a destroyed swath of economically weakened land in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's apparent intention to weaken it so it no longer serves as an appealing example for the Russian citizens of the responsible leadership that his growing autocracy withholds them.

Border Surrenders

Although freezing in position the currently divided regions of these areas, Trump's proposal would force Ukraine to surrender the entire Donetsk province. Beyond benefiting the Russian Federation with area that its troops have been failed to occupy in exceeding a lengthy period of conflict, this surrender would make Ukrainian military defenses dangerously undermined.

The area is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "stronghold system", the entrenched defensive positions that constitute a critical obstacle to enemy progress. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these positions, leaving Putin a unobstructed way to Kyiv in case he subsequently decide to renew the war.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Additionally, in a action that would facilitate future hostilities simpler for the Russian military, the plan would force the nation to reduce the scale of its troops from their present approximately 800,000 soldiers to a limit of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's initiative imposes no equivalent limits on Russia's military.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to characterize Ukraine's legitimate government as extremists, Trump's plan states: "Every extremist belief system and activities must be opposed and banned." Seemingly to underscore this point, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in 100 days" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, Trump sets no requirement that the Russian leader endanger his regime by holding democratic processes in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

To be sure, the plan has Russia commit not to "invade other states" and to "enshrine in legislation its position of peaceful relations towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that the Russian leadership has violated comparable accords in the past – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government pledged to honor Ukraine's borders in return for surrendering its historical nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a return of seized territory in the Donbas to Kyiv – for what reason should we trust Russia this time?

This explains Ukraine has been so determined on western defense commitments. While the proposal promises a "strong coordinated armed reaction" if the Russian Federation resume its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive reliable protection assurances", the specifics include vague to alarming. The initiative would not just prevent the nation accession to NATO but also prohibit Nato members from deploying troops on Ukrainian territory, thereby precluding the reassurance force, likely headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to stop Putin from rebuilding his reduced forces, restocking, and reinvading.

International Concern

An additional side agreement reportedly would provide Ukraine with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any subsequent "significant, intentional, and continuous aggression" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an assault threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This implies a military response. But unlike a capable national defense – the nation's primary defense against additional Russian aggression – the credibility of the side agreement would hinge on the willingness of Nato leaders, like the US administration, to respond through arms to Putin's attacks, an action they have {not